Tuesday, December 25, 2007

My optimism for year 2008

Here is what, I believe, year 2008 will look like. Let me know what do you think about the future for 2008 for telecom?

1. The launch of iPhone SDK will not be as great as the developer community expects! It will provide very limited flexibility to create new applications. In fact, apple might sell the SDK. Or, the applications created will need to be approved by apple first before they can run on the phone and the creators will share the revenue with Apple. Any how, the iPhone SDK will create new startups as Android did.

2. Launch of Apple iPhone 3G will be more successful than iPhone 2G. iPhone 3G will also have mobile VoIP application. It will hit the showroom around August 2008. It will be the same price but with many more applications created on the iPhone SDK.

3. Nokia will try very hard to come back very competitively and raise its market share above 10%. We might listen a launch of Ovi which will be in direct competition with apple iPhone in terms of price/services.

4. Android will not be as successful as Google expects. Motorola might find another Razr with android, though I highly doubt that. T-mobile's collaborated 3G network with android will give T-mobile a better position than it has currently.

5. The Android cell phones, though cheap, will not kick off until early 2009; but will lay a solid foundation for data oriented applications and mobile advertising, which has so far been done only for a very narrow customer base.

6. AT&T Uverse and Verizon Fios will get more business after 30% rule on cable TV. Mobile TV, even after 3G networks, will remain a business idea of future.

I believe that next year the changes in the industry will create an eco-system , where data applications will have the very capability to take over the revenue generated by voice. But this capability will not materialize completely and become prominent until year 2009.

No comments: