Tuesday, December 25, 2007

My optimism for year 2008

Here is what, I believe, year 2008 will look like. Let me know what do you think about the future for 2008 for telecom?

1. The launch of iPhone SDK will not be as great as the developer community expects! It will provide very limited flexibility to create new applications. In fact, apple might sell the SDK. Or, the applications created will need to be approved by apple first before they can run on the phone and the creators will share the revenue with Apple. Any how, the iPhone SDK will create new startups as Android did.

2. Launch of Apple iPhone 3G will be more successful than iPhone 2G. iPhone 3G will also have mobile VoIP application. It will hit the showroom around August 2008. It will be the same price but with many more applications created on the iPhone SDK.

3. Nokia will try very hard to come back very competitively and raise its market share above 10%. We might listen a launch of Ovi which will be in direct competition with apple iPhone in terms of price/services.

4. Android will not be as successful as Google expects. Motorola might find another Razr with android, though I highly doubt that. T-mobile's collaborated 3G network with android will give T-mobile a better position than it has currently.

5. The Android cell phones, though cheap, will not kick off until early 2009; but will lay a solid foundation for data oriented applications and mobile advertising, which has so far been done only for a very narrow customer base.

6. AT&T Uverse and Verizon Fios will get more business after 30% rule on cable TV. Mobile TV, even after 3G networks, will remain a business idea of future.

I believe that next year the changes in the industry will create an eco-system , where data applications will have the very capability to take over the revenue generated by voice. But this capability will not materialize completely and become prominent until year 2009.

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Android suffers with early blows of criticism

After the first month of shakedown and hands-on coding experience, Android platform seems to have brought a lot of disappointment to the developer community. A news agency reported today that the developers are suffering with inadequate documentation, big holes in code and absence of some basic functionality. It was also reported that Google is not being very responsive to the issues submitted. The posts on the Android blog have reduced around four times in a month. With all this information at hand, some critics argue if this is a minor glitch or a sneak preview of things to come.

The report, though seem to be portraying the irritation and frustration of developers, seems to have taken the things too far. Till now, Google has a flawless reputation of providing excellent services and products. This is the first time the people have come so close to join hands with Google to create software. Thus, the expectations from the developer community and from everyone else are way too high.

Also Google seems to have played a smart game by passing on the beta tested Android platform to the developers, who have gone ahead and thought of a lot more possible innovative applications than Google would possibly have in so much time and found the gaps in design and code. Thus, using prize money as a bait, Google gets to test the platform for free because the prize money goes to the one who stays till the end and then also gets selected. Google gets free testing, genuine defects and free advertising.

The reduced number of posts is not at all the correct index of interest and involvement of the developer community. With time, only the serious developers will stay in the game and others will get off the bus. Also, as the development kicks off in various groups and start-ups, they will get a good hang of how the platform works and will have lesser things to ask. Further, these groups will avoid asking questions to the Android forum, as their ideas might get leaked out.

Overall, it looks like a reality pinch to the developers. With time, as the defects will be fixed and Android platform will mature, things will start to shape up.